Rotation Woes

I envision two possible scenarios playing out on Saturday for the newly promoted Doug Davis:

1.  He gets shelled and only lasts an inning and a third
2.  He goes six strong but takes 3.5 paint-drying hours to get there.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm going to go with my gut and choose door #1. Davis, signed as a free agent by the Cubs last month, posted a 7.51 ERA with the Brewers last year in eight games started. The soft-tossing lefty tops out at about 85 mph with his fastball and uses a cutter in the low 80's as well. These numbers wouldn't worry me at all if we're talking about Greg Maddux, but we're definitely not talking about Greg Maddux. The Cubs are scraping the bottom of the free agent market for starting pitchers with this one.


As long as the Cubs are digging for has-been lefties may I suggest some other options?

Denny Neagle

Kirk Rueter

                                                                                   

Glendon Rusch

Sean Estes

   

Remember this past off-season when the Cubs actually thought they had too many starting pitchers? Randy Well and Carlos Silva were vying for spots, Tom Gorzelanny was coming off a surprisingly productive season, and newbies Andrew Cashner and Casey Coleman were expected to compete as well. What an awful problem to have. I always hate it when I have too much of a good thing, especially when it completely backfires:

• Gorzelanny: TRADED - he's currently 2-2 with a sub 3.0 ERA this year for the Nationals. 
• Silva: RELEASED
• Wells: INJURED
• Cashner: INJURED
• Coleman: 1 win in 5 starts and a very impressive 6.29 ERA. Yikes.

There was never a question who the top three starting pitchers would be, but filling the void of those last two rotation spots has proven to be quite the task. Doug Davis is the latest contestant in what is sure to be a year-long battle to see which pitcher can hold the job the longest. 

Jim Hendry: Should He Stay or Should He Go?

Fox Sports posted an article yesterday arguing that firing Jim Hendry this year would be a bad decision. While the article makes good points in mentioning the talent of the Cubs' minor league system and how Hendry has set the team up for the future, I just don't see how it's possible to overlook all the poor decisions he's made in recent years. Sure, he recognized the talent of Starlin Castro and made sure he stayed with the club. Let's be honest, ANYONE knows a guy like Castro is a once in a generation talent. I really don't think you can pat Hendry on the back for that one.

Of course we all remember the amazing deals Hendry has made. No one can forget the trades for Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Randall Simon, and Eric Karros. The Ted Lilly signing paid off and it was great to see Greg Maddux get his 300th win in a Cub uniform. However, in recent years Hendry hasn't really done anything too terribly productive. Rich Harden didn't pan out, Casey McGehee got away, and we don't even need to touch on the Milton Bradley saga. I'll go out on a limb and say the last truly productive move Hendry made was the John Grabow/Tom Gorzellany trade in July 2009. (Please see earlier post for rant on Gorzellany).

Anways, here's my list of some of the worst transactions Hendry has made during his tenure with the Chicago Cubs. They're not in order of ridiculousness because I don't think you can compare them. They're all head scratchers in their own unique way.

Alfonso Soriano contract:  Do we really need to dissect this one? Soriano's 8-year $136 million contract comes off the books after the 2014 season. By this time he'll be 38 years old and still be playing left field every day. Only 40 more months to go!

Jeff Samardzija signing bonus: Does anybody realize how insane Samardzija's contract really is? He was a 5th round draft pick in 2006. That means 30 teams drafted for four rounds and didn't touch him before the Cubs finally grabbed him 149th overall. Hendry was sooooooo excited about Samardzija's talent that he signed him to a 5-year $10 million contract. This contract included a $2.5 million signing bonus, a no-trade clause, and can be worth a maximum of $16.5 million if the Cubs decide to pick up his options for 2012 and 2013. They certainly hope they don't.

**For the record, Tim Lincecum was taken by the Giants in Round 1 of the 2006 draft, had a signing bonus that was $500,000 less than Samardzija's, and didn't see his first million dollar paycheck until 2010.


Kosuke Fukudome contract:  Fukudome has played above average defense during his time in Chicago, but has yet to flash the offensive prowess that made him a batting champion in Japan. Instead, Hendry gets to shell out $14.5 million in 2011 for a right fielder with a career .265 batting average.

Zambrano contract extension: Hendry inked Big Z to a massive contract extension to the tune of 5 years 91.5 million in August 2007. You can't compare this contract to that of Soriano's in the age category, as Z will still only be 31 when he becomes a free agent again. The problem with this signing is Zambrano's inconsistency and mental instability. Z's anger management issues last year certainly weren't some big surprise. Everyone knows he's a ticking time-bomb, and it's up to Hendry to recognize that and spend money a little more wisely.

Josh Hamilton sale: Fans tend to forget that it was the Cubs who originally picked up Hamilton in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. What did Hendry do with the pick? He sold the eventual 2010 American League MVP to the Cincinnati Reds for $100,000 in straight up cash. However, a team has to pay $50,000 just to make a Rule 5 pick so Hendry only made a whopping 50K on the Hamilton deal. Genius. 

Juan Pierre trade: The speedy Juan Pierre was acquired from the Florida Marlins in December 2005. He played all 162 games of the 2006 season with the Cubs and hit .292 while stealing 58 bases. The Cubs, however, finished 30 games under .500 and dead last in the NL central. At the end of the season the Cubs granted Pierre his free agency and he signed with the Dodgers. Jim Hendry got the guy for one year and let him go, and he gave up a prospect named Ricky Nolasco to get him. Nolasco has been a mainstay in the Marlin's starting rotation ever since and has posted double-digit win seasons every year except 2007. Those are wins the Cubs could have desperately needed.



Honorable mention: Mark DeRosa, Ted Lilly, and Tom Gorzellany trades

5 Burning Questions

Pitchers and catchers reported last week and the first spring training games are looming. Every team has questions that need to be answered and, and always, speculation is in the air. Here are my 5 burning questions hovering over the Cubs’ spring camp:

1.) Who is the everyday second basemen?

I remember the days when you woke up every morning and just knew the answer to this question, but now it seems like 2011 will be the year of the 2B platoon. Let’s review the candidates:

Blake DeWitt
The left-handed side of this platoon is only 25 years old but I feel like we’re in for a Bobby Hill style disappointment. The former 1st rounder hasn’t done anything to solidify any sort of confidence in his ability be play the position everyday. A career batting average of .259 makes me feel like he’s destined for the bottom of the lineup. He doesn’t hit the long ball and has only 6 career stolen bases, so it’s not like we’re trading power for speed here.

Jeff Baker
The right-handed hitting side of the duo really isn't offering up a better solution. His numbers suggest he has more power than DeWitt, but in 6 big league seasons he's only played in 100 games one time. He does take his share of walks and has a better than average fielding percentage, but it appears that, at best, he's ideal for a platoon or pinch-hitting role.

in the running: Darwin Barney, Michael Young (hey I can dream)

2.) Can Quade continue his winning ways?

Mike Quade very quietly went 24-13 in his brief tenure at the helm of the already forgotten 2010 Chicago Cubs. He won 6 of 8 series (including 3-game sweeps of the Nationals, Cardinals, and Marlins) and went 8-2 in his last 10 games. The players appeared to be buying in to what he was doing, and additions of Carlos Pena and Matt Garza give Quade a bit more to work with than the 2010 version did. So the big question remains: does he pick up where he left off in 2011?

3.) Who is going to round out the starting rotation?

The top three spots in the rotation are locked up, but beyond that your guess is as good as mine. As spring training opens I figure there are five guys vying for the final two spots. Carlos Silva and Randy Wells figure to be the front-runners, but Andrew Cashner, Casey Coleman, and James Russell are all young talent looking to turn some heads. Cashner and Russell worked out of the 'pen last year while Coleman posted a respectable 4-2 record in eight starts in the last two months of the season.

 4.) How does the return of Kid K affect the bullpen?

Kerry Wood gave the Cubs a hometown discount and turned down big bucks from the Yankees, so what does it mean for the bullpen? Wood's health is always a question mark, but if he can stay off the DL then the Cubs have a very formidable 8th/9th inning combo. Wood in the 8th inning to Carlos Marmol in the 9th inning is as dominant as.....well...when it was the reverse in 2008. Wood posted less than impressive ERA's during his year and a half stint with the Indians, but something clicked at the trading deadline last year when he was dealt to the Yankees. He went 2-0 with 31 strikeouts and 10 holds in only 26 innings pitched. If he can build off his 2010 resurgence then the Cubs' bullpen just received a very well priced boost of confidence.

5.) Will Castro and Colvin fall victim to the sophomore slump?

We all remember the catastrophic season that befell Geovany Soto in 2009. Fresh off an All-Star game starting nod and a Rookie of the Year award in 2008, Geo's batting average fell 67 points the following year and he drove in almost half as many runs.  Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin must avoid this same fate if the Cubs are going to contend in 2011. There is no doubt that Castro is going to continue to improve defensively, but like Colvin, he must provide consistent production at the plate. Unlike Castro, Colvin isn't assured a spot in the starting lineup. Quade will undoubtedly give him plenty of playing time and his power numbers will be there, but he will still need to improve on that .254 batting average.
 
Burning question honorable mention: Who the hell is going to play right field?

Marmol Makes it Long-Term

The nastiest slider in the majors just got inked for an extended stay at the Friendly Confines. Carlos Marmol and the Cubs plan to announce on February 13 (pending a physical) a deal that would keep Marmol in a Cubs uniform beyond the 2012 season.

In an offseason full of significant free agent signings this contract extension will go down with very little fanfare. However, for the Cubs this may be the most important offseason signing of them all. Marmol's 16.0 K/9 in 2010 is a staggering statistic, and it's easy to forget he posted 38 saves for a team that was a complete failure. The kid is only 28 years old, and while we all know he needs to cool it with the walks, he hasn't even come close to reaching his potential.

Bullpens win ballgames folks, and the Cubbies just locked up one of the most dominant closers in the league.

Gone-zellany

 Please don’t hate me for my broken promises. It’s been 328 days since my last post and I’m well aware that running a blog with actual readers requires, at the very least, semi-frequent activity. I promise to keep the venting of utter frustration to a minimum because that’s really my only fear with this thing. The Cubs are going to do something stupid and it’s going to piss me off. However, I suppose both of those are foregone conclusions. Bear with me and I’ll try to keep the thoughts positive (most of the time.)


Here we go again....

The Cubs traded southpaw starter Tom Gorzellany to the Washington Nationals yesterday for three prospects. Pardon me while I scratch my head for a minute.
…....

…............

….....................

…........................................

um....why did this happen?

Gorz (I really don’t want to type his full name every time) isn’t the second coming of Jesus, and just might be the ugliest man in all of professional baseball, but he was amazingly efficient. Are the Cubs really that confident with the back of their rotation to feel they can part ways with a pitcher who had oddly similar numbers to Matt Garza in 2010.

It’ll be interesting conversation pondering the Cubs potential starting rotation as spring training gets going. Is this what Mike Quade is envisioning?

1. Dempster (Opening Day Starter)
2. Garza
3. Zambrano
4. Randy Wells
5. The Fat Man/Andrew Cashner/Jeff Samardzija

Even though Carlos Silva (aka Fat Man) had a jaw-dropping 2010, I don’t think anyone fully trusts him. Cashner is obviously the sexy pick if he can step it up, but a guy like Gorz answers this question pretty easily. He’s proven he can be a consistent starter in the back of the rotation and he’s LEFT-HANDED! The Cubs have only one lefty on the roster who has any experience as as starter and that’s Sean Marshall. He’s pretty much locked into his bullpen role and even with the addition of John Grabow I would hate to see the Cubs spot-start Marshall for any reason. He was a huge success in the ‘pen.

Essentially, the Cubs just gave up on Gorz as soon as they signed Matt Garza. I certainly hope those prospects from the Nationals were worth it.

Big Z's Big Meltdown

Did anybody else feel like they got hit by a bus yesterday after Carlos Zambrano's 8-run meltdown over an inning and a third against the Braves? I mean seriously, what in the name of Tuffy Rhodes was that for an opening day performance? Big Z has always been historically bad on opening day (only one win in 6 appearances since 2005), but he didn't even leave the game with his dignity. On the bright side, Sean Marshall dazzled for almost three innings and whiffed five guys in the process, and James Russell was stellar in his big league debut. However, the cause for concern is imminent with this completely unacceptable performance from Zambrano. The Cubbie starting rotation is already a huge question mark and to see the #1 starter get his teeth kicked in like he did does not bode well for the ole confidence.

It was also nice to see Marlon Byrd get off to a great start. I heard Pat & Ron say he's the first Cub to hit a home run in his first at-bat with the team since O'Henry Rodriguez did it in 1998. I'll go ahead and log that little nugget of info away for the next time I'm on Cubs Jeopardy. Byrd's big fly was cause for brief elation until Zambrano took the mound at the bottom of the inning.

Opening Day was a bit of a downer but keep your heads up everyone. This isn't the NFL where seasons are won and lost in one game. This is baseball and we have 161 more to go!

Opening Day Anticipation

Ahhhh Opening Day. It might be the most refreshing day of the year for a baseball fan. Every team starts at zero and it's the only week of the year where the likes of the Royals or Nationals might grace the top of their division standings for a few short days. Life begins anew and no matter what kind of off-season a team has, you can't help but feel optimism in the air. As the Cubs turn the corner to Opening Day 2010, let's check out a few memorable Spring Training happenings:

Holy Tyler Colvin: It's too bad Colvin is an outfielder because the Cubs really need to find a permanent roster spot for this kid. He led the team this spring in Avg, Total Bases, RBI, runs scored, and I'm sure a few other categories I've overlooked. How about it Tyler, can you play second base? How about a little third base? You should really work on that because you don't deserve to be merely pinch hitting.

A friend of mine made a good point...wouldn't it be interesting if the Cubs starting outfield by summer was Nady, Byrd, and Colvin? That would relegate the big money guys (Fukudome and Soriano) to the bench. Sure it won't happen, but those three have a very good shot at out-producing them.

The Fat Man Can Pitch! (kind of): Carlos Silva has actually made the starting rotation. How many of you honestly called this one? I think some of us half expected Silva to not even make the roster, especially after his disastrous spring training debut. Since then he's settled down, notched two wins and has given Piniella another back of the rotation option. Go Fat Man!

DLee vs. The Folding Chair: The freak injury of the spring without a doubt goes to Derek Lee, who had a folding chair collapse on him while he was eating in the clubhouse. The fall tweaked his back and cut his playing time short that afternoon, but other than that no harm done.

The No Name Bullpen feat. James Russell & Justin Berg: Chalk up another failure for the Jeff Samardzija experiment, as the Cubs sent him down last week in favor of Justin Berg. Both Berg and fellow newcomer James Russell will start the season with the big club in the head-scratcher that is the Cubbie Bullpen. Esmailin Caridad has some major league experience and four lefties (Gorzelanny, Marshall, Grabow, and Russell) add some depth, but it's a very iffy situation in my opinion. It's a little unsettling that Carlos Marmol is really the only sure thing. He didn't have to battle this spring for the closer's job so hopefully that'll help his confidence. While it'd be nice to think that all of these guys will produce, you have to wonder what type of deal Hendry is going to try to swing by the All-Star break for a veteran bullpen presence.


 Cubs decide on Tracy over Millar: I think this is the most realistic decision, but it's hard to not think about the professionalism and clubhouse demeanor a guy like Kevin Millar can bring to a team. I hope he catches on with another organization. The Cubs need Chad Tracy's ability to play third base, so that seals Millar's fate. Let's just hope he doesn't hit like Aaron Miles.